Brazil vs Morocco: lineups

Brazil probable lineup (4-2-3-1)

Ancelotti is most likely to set up in a recognisable 4-2-3-1: Alisson in goal; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães and Alex Sandro across the back; Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães as a double pivot; Raphinha, Lucas Paquetá and Vinícius Júnior behind a lone striker, Matheus Cunha.

The big absentee is Neymar, ruled out with a calf injury, a blow that shifts the team's creative weight onto Paquetá and Raphinha. Wesley also misses out with a muscle injury, which opens a question at right-back: Ancelotti can turn to Danilo, try Éderson as a wing-back — he was a late call-up and has been tested there — or back Ibáñez.

Up top, the number-nine debate is still open. Cunha starts as favourite, but Endrick and, above all, Igor Thiago (two goals in four caps) are pushing for the spot. As ever with Brazil, the name that truly tips the balance is Vinícius: if he is sharp, Morocco's defence will struggle down his flank.

Morocco probable lineup (4-2-3-1)

Morocco arrive flying: they are Africa Cup of Nations champions — they won the final against Senegal — and are unbeaten in their last five. The projection also has them in a 4-2-3-1: Bounou; Hakimi, Diop, Chadi Riad and Mazraoui in defence; Amrabat and Ounahi in midfield; Brahim Díaz, Saibari and El Khannouss behind the centre-forward.

Injuries, though, have forced a reshaped back line. Nayef Aguerd, a first-choice centre-back, is out of the tournament with a groin problem, and Abde Ezzalzouli also misses the World Cup with a knee injury. Add to that the doubt over Mazraoui, carrying a shoulder issue, which could force one more tweak in the back four.

The leader is still Achraf Hakimi, capable of defining the game both by marking Vinícius and by joining the attack down the right. Around him, Morocco trust what worked in 2022: a compact block, quick transitions and the quality of Brahim Díaz and El Khannouss to punish the first rival mistake.

The tactical battle

The match will be decided in two areas. The first is the flank where Hakimi and Vinícius meet: both want to attack, and whoever wins that individual duel can tilt the game. If Hakimi commits forward, he leaves space behind him; if he stays to contain Vinícius, Morocco lose one of their best attacking weapons.

The second is midfield. Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães must give balance to a Brazil that, without Neymar, will need patience against a side that closes space well. Opposite them, Amrabat and Ounahi will look to cut the passing lanes into Paquetá and break quickly on the counter, which is where Morocco do most damage.

In short: Brazil will have the ball and carry the game; Morocco will bet on staying compact, organised and hitting in transition, exactly as they did to knock out Spain and Portugal at Qatar 2022.

What we expect

Brazil start as favourites on squad depth and pedigree, and at a MetLife that will be split but loud they should take the initiative. The key, for me, is patience: without Neymar, they will need to move the ball quickly and not grow frustrated against the Moroccan wall.

To pull off the upset, Morocco need an inspired Bounou, Hakimi to win his duel with Vinícius, and to take the two or three transitions they will get. It would be no historic shock: they did it in 2022. If the game reaches the final half hour at 0-0, all the pressure will be on Brazil.